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匯添富投資洞察閱讀

基金經理
楊瑨

學歷:碩士

從業經歷:2010年8月加入匯添富基金管理股份有限公司,2010年8月至2017年1月擔任公司的TMT行業分析師,2017年1月25日至今任匯添富全球移動互聯混合基金的基金經理。

楊瑨:如何投資科技產業中的概念股2019年05月28日

在您每天打開炒股軟件時,必定會注意到時不時彈出的“某某概念板塊快速拉升”、“某概念板塊龍頭沖擊漲停”等博人眼球的頭條消息,看著這些動輒數個漲停板的概念股龍頭,再看看自己持倉的股票,“仿佛錯過一個億”的失落情緒是否會涌上心頭?

在這些概念板塊中,又數科技產業的造星能力最強。“5G”、“人工智能”、“云計算”這些算是老百姓耳熟能詳的,“區塊鏈”、“泛在電力物聯網”、“邊緣計算”、“數字孿生”等新概念則更讓人云里霧里,不要說真正理解,連名字都很難讓人記住。

那么,如何投資科技產業中的這些概念股呢?

在匯添富的投資理念———“以深入的企業基本面分析為立足點,挑選高質量的證券,把握市場脈絡,做中長期投資布局,以獲得持續穩定增長的較高的長期投資收益”中,確有一句“把握市場脈絡”,這是否意味著在基金經理的投資過程中,一定要抓住這些暫時表現最好的概念板塊呢?讓我們來復盤一下歷史上科技產業中具有代表性的概念板塊中的個股表現吧。

一個案例是2010年到2015年的智能手機行業。由于智能手機出貨量的爆發式成長,加上智能手機功能的不斷創新,涌現出了無數的概念板塊,“觸摸屏”、“指紋識別”、“面部識別”、“雙攝像頭”、“無線充電”等不一而足。

在觸摸屏產業從無到有成長為數百億規模的過程中,資本市場中竟然出現了數十家要進入該產業的上市公司,一時間,但凡宣布投資觸摸屏的上市公司都獲得了可觀的漲幅和不菲的市盈率。然而,一個看起來高科技、高成長的行業,在非常短的時間內出現了技術擴散、快速擴產和過度競爭,時至今日,觸摸屏已成為一個利潤微薄、幾乎沒有資本關注度的產業,而絕大部分當時火熱的概念股也早已偃旗息鼓、被人淡忘。

不過,在智能手機產業中,一些不那么被關注的領域和企業迎來了持續的高速增長。以某上市公司A為例,這是一家上市時幾乎100%業務來自于電腦產業的零部件企業,悄無聲息的在消費電子領域擴張著業務版圖。在做深做透原連接器主業的基礎上,向天線、無線充電、聲學、馬達等產品線不斷延伸,您可能偶爾在“無線充電”、“Type-C”等概念中看到它的身影,但提到這家公司,大部分人卻說不出它到底是屬于哪個概念板塊。時至今日,大家在智能手機乃至泛零部件制造領域搜尋投資標的,它一定是第一個被想起的龍頭企業。上市以來,上市公司A業績累計成長超過20倍,股價漲幅超過14倍。

說起來奇怪,上市公司A的原主業是面對“日薄西山”的電腦產業,而那些觸摸屏“概念股”則是面對爆發式成長、從無到有的數百億增量市場,為何最后的結局如此不同?

匯添富的“把握市場脈絡”,不代表我們需要追逐那些“概念板塊”,而是在當前的時代發展背景下,尋找那些最重要、最有代表性的成長線索,然后在其中自下而上挑選高質量證券。為什么那些“概念板塊”中要找到長期牛股不易?因為優秀的企業本就難尋,而那些“概念板塊”所處的產業,又是熱錢流入最多、競爭最為激烈的,即便有優秀的企業,它們要為股東創造回報的難度自然也就更高。

如果回顧同樣處于智能手機產業中的“觸摸屏”與“立訊精密”的案例,我們發現,所謂的“把握市場脈絡”不是把握博人眼球的概念板塊,不是把握那些漲的飛快的概念股龍頭,而是把握中國制造業呈現出扁平管理架構、迅速反應、高勤奮度、大規模制造與低成本等比較優勢,是把握零部件制造產業轉移的大時代背景,然后從中選擇具備最優秀的公司治理、管理層、企業戰略/文化/執行力。

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